How Housing Is Leading Us Out of the Great Recession

by The KCM Crew on April 30, 2013

We are often asked if the housing market can truly rebound if the all-round economy remains sluggish. We answer by explaining the housing market is not dependent on the economy but rather the economy is reliant on the housing market. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moodys.com, addressed this issue in a recent report.

 “Historically, housing has always led the U.S. out of recessions. It is the most interest rate-sensitive part of the economy, and as rates fall during recessions, housing rises first.”

How does real estate impact the economy?

Real estate impacts the economy in several ways. As Zandi explains:

“Housing’s resurrection is crucial to the creation of more jobs. Every new single-family home creates and sustains almost five jobs for about a year. These include not only construction jobs, but manufacturing positions for producing lumber, paint, nails, plumbing fixtures, carpets, wall board and so on. Truckers are hired to move this material around, and retailers add workers as new homeowners shop at home-improvement and hardware stores. Realtors, mortgage bankers, landscapers and cable installers all increase staff.”

Is the current market momentum sustainable?

If the economy is dependent on a recovering housing market, we need to know whether the current good news being reported in the real estate industry will continue as we move forward. Again, Mr. Zandi:

“The pace of construction has risen to 900,000 homes per year and is set to double to 1.8 million in the next few years. Even this will be only enough to meet demand; in an average year, 1.25 million households are formed, 350,000 houses are irreparably damaged or demolished, and an additional 200,000 are built for use as vacation or second homes. Given pent-up household formation—hundreds of thousands have put off their plans because of the tough job market—there could be a couple of years in which closer to 2 million homes will need to be built to meet demand.”

Housing will remain strong for the next several years. That will enable the economy to continue to heal until it fully recovers.

If you have been waiting for the right time to sell your home, this is it, low inventory, job stability coming back, customer confidence is getting stronger.

Give me a call and let's talk about our marketing plan to get your house SOLD!

Noemi Cardoso
William Raveis Real Estate
911 Main Rd - Westport MA 02790
Cell: 508-558-1945
www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com
Noemi.Cardoso@Raveis.com
Fluent in English and Portuguese
Serving MA and RI
 

Fannie: Housing to See 'Sustained Growth'

Daily Real Estate News - February  2013

  

The housing market is “on a sustained growth path,” according to the latest economic outlook by Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group.

"One of the key developments for the housing market last year was the general consensus that home prices, on a national basis, bottomed earlier in the year and continued to build momentum, exhibiting robust year-over-year gains unseen since the housing boom," according to the report.

Housing inventories are at the lowest since December 1994 and fewer distressed homes have helped to lift home prices, according to Fannie Mae economists.

Among some of Fannie Mae economists projections for this year:

• Home prices: Fannie Mae economists predict that the median price of existing homes will increase 2.3 percent on an annual basis this year, reaching $181,000. The median price of a new home will likely increase 1.6 percent to $248,000. For 2014, economists predict that home prices will increase an extra 2.8 percent.
• Home sales: Existing-home sales will likely rise 11.5 percent in 2013, and new-home sales will rise 12.5 percent, economists predict.
• Mortgage rates: Rates will likely edge up slightly this year with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages projected to average 3.8 percent this year and rise to 4.4 percent in 2014.

Source: “Fannie Mae: Housing Is 'on a Sustained Growth Path',” Inman News (Feb. 21, 2013)
Read More Fannie: Housing Shows Signs of 'Durable, Long-Term Recovery'

If you are thinking of buying a home in Westport or surrounding areas please visit www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com for a free list of homes for sale in Westport and Bristol County MA and RI.

If you are thinking of selling your home contact me for a FREE Current Market Analysis and to learn about our Market Plan to get your home SOLD!

We work with one going in mind, YOURS!

Noemi Cardoso
Local Office. Local Agents. Local Knowledge.
William Raveis Real Estate
911 Main Rd - Westport MA 02790
Cell: 508-558-1945
www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com
noemi@DistinctiveHomes-NE.com

Are Lending Standards Loosening?

by The KCM Crew on February 27, 2013

Celia Chen, an economist for Moody’s Analytics, recently reported on her projections regarding mortgage standards throughout 2013.

“The housing recovery began in earnest in 2012, despite constraints placed by a still-tight mortgage lending environment. This year promises improvements as the drivers of tough credit standards reverse. First, consumer credit quality is improving, which will help increase the number of creditworthy borrowers. Second, policymakers, regulators and courts are ironing out the legal and regulatory issues that cast a pall of uncertainty over the mortgage industry. Combined with mortgage interest rates that will remain low, mortgage credit will be more accessible to households this year, although still not back to normal. Nonetheless, a slight opening of the credit spigot is a positive for the housing outlook.”

She warns that normal credit standards will not return for some time as new QR and QRM rules are determined.

“On the supply side, easy credit is still a long way off as lenders loosen incrementally from very high standards: The share of loans originated for borrowers with the highest credit score has remained large, averaging 82% in the last two years, compared with 50% in 2005 and 2006. New rules issued by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau in January keep mortgage standards high and credit tight, as lenders will be required to fully document every borrower’s income, employment and assets regardless of credit history. Other rules will effectively ban loans with interest only or negatively amortizing payments.”

However, she sees things improving as we move through the year because there is less risk for the banks now that house prices are again appreciating.

“Finally, rising house prices give lenders more breathing room to extend credit. Over the last 18 months, large lenders have loosened or left standards stable on prime loans that dominate mortgage originations, reports the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior lending officers.”

What Impact Will This Have on the Housing Market?

“Although mortgage supply will remain constrained, improved consumer credit quality combined with steady growth in jobs, low mortgage interest rates, and modestly rising house prices means that more households will be able to qualify for a mortgage. Greater credit availability will in turn help drive stronger home sales and stronger price appreciation and help keep the housing market and economy on an upward path.”

If you are thinking of buying a home in Westport or surrounding areas please visit www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com for a free list of homes for sale in Westport and Bristol County MA and RI.

If you are thinking of selling your home contact me for a FREE Current Market Analysis and to learn about our Market Plan to get your home SOLD!

We work with one going in mind, YOURS!

Noemi Cardoso
Local Office. Local Agents. Local Knowledge.
William Raveis Real Estate
911 Main Rd - Westport MA 02790
Cell: 508-558-1945
www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com
noemi@DistinctiveHomes-NE.com

 

Improving Foreclosure Prices Drive Recovery

Written by: Steve Cook Tue, June 5, 2012

Significant price increases in bank-owned foreclosures are driving gains at the national, regional and local levels, helping home prices turn the corner with small quarterly and yearly gains.

National average prices for bank-owned foreclosures (REO) were up 8.1 percent over a year ago on a median price-per-square-foot basis, according to May data from Clear Capital, and have outpaced non-REO price declines of -0.7 percent by 8.8 percentage points.

“Strength in REO-only price trends as well as some early indications of price gains spreading from low tier sectors to the mid, and higher-priced homes is helping confirm that the country continues to make progress on its recovery, and we are expecting to see improvements extend over the next several months,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital.

Clear Capital reported today that in May national median home prices grew on both a quarterly and yearly basis for the first time since August 2010. Regional performance improved across the board with the West, South and Northeast also seeing quarterly and yearly gains. However, the Midwest sustained declines, but milder since last.

“National real estate prices in May have finally moved past the continued losses of the last few years. The subsequent stabilization pattern seen in recent months has progressed into the start of moderate growth,” said Villacorta.

Short-term quarterly price trends picked up slightly at the national level, with appreciation of 0.4 percent turning into the first quarterly gain since November of 2011. The positive move at the broader market level is a reflection of the increasing strength at the regional level.

Helping to support growth at the national level, the West saw a notable jump in prices over the quarter, taking the lead over all the regions with growth of 2.7. The South recorded home price appreciation of 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, doubling the small gains of 0.6 percent reported on last month. Similarly, the Northeast matched the national level gains of 0.4 percent over the quarter, showing a modest uptick over the gains of 0.2 percent reported last month.

The Midwest continued to absorb price declines. With prices declining only -2.0 percent over the quarter the magnitude of the declines are subsiding, as compared to last month’s quarterly losses of -2.7 percent.

While growth in REO-only prices is driving broader market gains for most of the regions, the impact on overall prices depends on the level of REO market saturation. For example, the Northeast has seen incredible growth in the REO-only sector shown above, yet has only recorded 1.6 percent gains year-over-year in overall prices. Because the Northeast has a mere 10 percent REO saturation, the lowest level across all regions, even substantial growth in the REO-only price segment hasn’t swayed overall prices significantly.

Additionally, the Northeast’s REO-only prices are more sensitive to shifting demand, fueling the seemly high annual gains, said Villacorta.

The Midwest is the only region that continues to see REO-only price declines on a year over year basis. While REO-only price growth has led the other regions into broader based growth, the Midwest has yet to receive assistance from this sector on overall progress. It’s worth noting that the Midwest’s REO saturation levels are still the highest of all the regions. As such, price weakness in the REO-only segment has been harder for the market to shake off, resulting in sustained declines at the broader level, as seen in overall yearly declines of -3.1 percent.

However, each of the three regions now seeing gains in REO-only prices first saw long term reductions in REO saturation rates. And while the Midwest continues to face declines, it has achieved a reduction in its REO saturation rate over the last several years, from a high of 45 percent in 2009, down to 37 percent in May.

If you’re curious to see what’s currently for sale in your area of interest, start your search at the best real estate website www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com


Noemi Cardoso
RE/MAX Welcome Home
Serving Westport, Dartmouth, Fall River, MA
Little Compton, Tiverton, RI and surrounding towns.
www.DistinctiveHomes-NE.com